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Anonymous A
on Jan 20, 2024
Global
I want to receive updates regarding this question via email.

Market Sizing - Demad Vs. Supply Side

Hi All,

When solving a market sizing question, how to decide whether to approach the problem from the demand side or the supply side? I generally do it based on the constraints of the problem and mostly my own intuition, but is there a better way to approach this?

For example, to estimate the # of luxury cars in the US, estimating demand for luxury cars would be more appropriate… 
Vs.
For estimating the revenues of a restaurant in Paris, it is better to start from the supply side based on the # of tables available and avg. occupancy..

Thanks
Anuraag
 

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Top answer
Ian
Coach
on Jan 21, 2024
Top US BCG / MBB Coach - 5,000 sessions |Tech, Platinion, Big 4 | 9/9 personal interviews passed | 95% candidate success

You're exactly right!

And, the same logic goes for top-down versus bottom up.

Here are some you can practice on (with video explanations!):

Market Sizing WITH SOLUTION - Coffee Shop Revenue | PrepLounge.com

Market Sizing WITH SOLUTION - Number of Internet Users | PrepLounge.com

Market Sizing WITH SOLUTION - Number of Taxis | PrepLounge.com

How to approach market sizing

It's very simple: Do the approach the is the easiest for you given the question.

Are they asking you to estimate something where you don't even know where to begin from the top (maybe you have 0 clue as to the market size of the industry, the GDP of that country, etc. etc.)? Then do bottom-up!

Alternatively, does it seem impossible to do a realistic from-the-ground-up estimation of something (perhaps it requires just far too many steps and assumptions)? Then do top-down!

Fundamentally, you need to take the approach that just makes the most sense in that circumstance. Quickly think about the key assumptions / numbers required and whether you 1) Know them or 2) Can reasonably estimate them. If you can, go ahead!

An Example

He's a Q&A for a great market sizing question here asking to estimate # of electric charging stations in a city in 10 years:

https://www.preplounge.com/en/consulting-forum/how-would-you-solve-this-market-sizing-question-from-roland-berger-7631

This one could be answered top-down (as I did) by estimating population of the city, # of drivers/ cars, etc. etc.

OR, it could be answered bottom-up by estimating # of stations you see per block (or # of gas/petrol tanks), % increase this might be over time (or # of EV stations that would be needed per gas tank given EV stations take 10 times as long), and # of blocks you'd estimate the city to have.

Take a look here for additional practice! https://www.preplounge.com/en/management-consulting-cases/brain-teaser/intermediate/taxis-in-manhattan-market-sizing-229

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Alberto
Coach
on Jan 21, 2024
Ex-McKinsey Associate Partner | MBB Coach | 95% success rate | +13 yrs in consulting | +2,000 real interviews in 3 firms

Hi there,

Market sizing exercises are not about the solution but showing your thought process. 

Use the approach you feel more comfortable with giving the question and context and make sure you clearly explain all your logic and steps.

Best,

Alberto

—

Check out my latest case based on a real MBB interview: Sierra Springs

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Cristian
Coach
on Jan 22, 2024
#1 rated McKinsey Coach

Hi Anuraag, 

Both approaches can work. You need to figure out whatever is easiest and best fitting in that particular scenrio. 

A great candidate also typically suggests several alternative ways of solving the problem, instead of just giving one approach (e.g., demand side). An alternative approach can also then serve as a means of sanity-checking your approach. 

Sharing with you here an article that discusses these top down vs bottom up methodologies to structuring:

  • Expert Guide: Mastering Structuring & Brainstorming


Good luck!
Cristian

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Alan
on Feb 20, 2024

You can consider the fundamental nature of the market you’re analyzing. Some markets are inherently demand-driven (e.g., consumer goods), while others are more supply-driven (e.g., infrastructure projects) or assess the availability and reliability of data. Sometimes, one side (demand or supply) might have more accurate and readily available data.

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Florian
Coach
on Jan 22, 2024
1400 5-star reviews across platforms | 600+ offers | Highest-rated case book on Amazon | Uni lecturer in US, Asia, EU

Hi there,

Pick the approach you feel most comfortable with in the situation and the one that allows you to quickly come up with robust assumptions for the calculations.

Do not plan how you would want to frame a problem before even going into the interviewer.

Cheers,

Florian

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Market Sizing
Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size. The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65: Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online. 
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