How could one estimate the cannabis market (in tons) in germany per year?
My approach would be:
1. number of tons of cannabis as stimulant per year + 2. number of tons of cannabis as medicine.
1.1. number of consuming people x number of grams on average per year
Number of people consuming =>
12-17 years: 5 million (assuming an evenly distributed population and an average age of 80 years), of which every 10th = 500,000
18-25 years: 5 million, of which every 2-3 = 2 million
26-35 years: 10 million, of which every 10th =>1 million
36 +: 45 million, of which every 100 => 450,000
= approx. 4 million
1.2. number of grams on average
high consumption (10%): 1 gram joint every day on average => 30 grams/month => 360 grams/year
medium consumption (60%): 1 gram per week => 52 grams per year
low consumption (30%): 1 gram per year
=> 360x0.1 + 52 x 0.6 + 1 x 0.3 = approx. 68 grams / year
= 272 tonnes per year
2.1 Number of patients who need cannabis medicinally x average grams per year
Number of patients: Patients with severe medical conditions who need it x Use of cannabis as medicine of choice = 80mil x 0.1% x 10% = 80,000
average grams per year: assumption mostly chronic conditions, so use over several years:
1 gram daily = 30grams / month = 360 grams / year
80,000 x 540 grams = 28 tonnes
total: 272 tonnes + 28 tonnes = 300 tonnes
Looking forward for feedback!