How to estimate market penetration rate in reality?

Question

Hi everyone,

Just curious about what methods we can use to estimate the market penetration of one product (eg. smart phone). What I can think about are conducting customer survey, using Macro data to estimate, analyzing the financial report of all the producers, but I am not sure whether these methods are really useful in a real consulting project.

Appreciate your answers!

Answer 1

In my experience a mere exercise of triangulation: what are reports saying, what are industry experts saying in interviews or what is the client saying, does this align with the available top-line financial information. Will in the least cases be precise - mostly fudged - which is still fine since 1) no one else has a better answer and 2) precision does not make it more actionable.

Answer 2

Hi Bowen,

You've got it about right. It's definitely an art, not a science.

You would employ customer surveys, benchmarking (competitors and product), analyze similar historical product launches, etc.

Want to know the most common way? Ask the CEO/Exec/Partner what they think it will/should be.

Answer 3

There is no perfect answer for this. In reality, as a consultant I would use some combination of:

External market research reports
Internal company investor relations presentations
Primary customer surveys
Expert network interviews

Answer 4

Hey Bowen!

For sure, it is very important to examine the market and potential customers. There is no one perfect way to do it, so you can use the imagination and try to do it in different ways, considering the demographic groups, normal market penetration for the product etc.

If you have any other questions - feel free to write to me,

GB

Answer 5

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Answer 6

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Answer 7

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