How to solve these market sizing quantitative question?

Qualitative and quantitative analysis are two basic methods in research and data analysis that are often used in different scientific disciplines. These two approaches require different methods in data collection and they have different goals. They allow researchers to gain comprehensive insights into complex phenomena. For example, a company can use the findings to better understand a target group with its needs, or one can evaluate their effectiveness. Thus, both qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis are important skills in business consulting.In this text, the importance and application of these methods will be highlighted. Since significance and representativeness, as well as the difference between causality and correlation, play an important role in assessing the quality and significance of research results, these terms will first be explained.Explantation of TermsIn statistics, the term "significance" refers to the importance or relevance of observations or differences in the data. Significance indicates whether the observed results in a study are likely due to true effects, or simply represent random variation. If a result is significant, it means that there is a low probability that it was caused by pure luck or chance.Example: Suppose a study is conducted to see if a new drug treatment improves the cure rate of a particular disease compared to the conventional treatment. After analyzing the data, it is found that the group receiving the new drug had a significantly higher cure rate than the group receiving the conventional treatment. This means that the differences in cure rates are not due to chance or luck, but are indicative of the true effect of the new drug.=> If you want a Case Study about the medical field, try our Bayer Case about “Entering the US antidepressant market”!A study is considered representative if it is able to accurately reflect the characteristics and attributes of the population being studied. To be representative, several characteristics must be met, including:Random sampling: participants should be randomly selected to ensure that each person in the population has an equal chance of being included in the study. This helps to avoid bias.Large sample size: the larger the sample, the more likely it is to reflect the true diversity and heterogeneity of the population. However, there is no set minimum size as this depends on the research question and the population.Representative characteristics: Participants should have characteristics similar to those of the population as a whole. This may include gender, age, ethnicity, and other relevant factors.Random assignment: In experimental studies, the assignment of participants to different groups (e.g., control group and experimental group) should also be randomized to minimize bias.Minimizing selection bias: it is important to ensure that participants have the opportunity to participate in the study and that selection is not influenced by certain limitations or biases.Overall, the goal of a representative study is to ensure that the results can be generalized to the broader population and are not limited to the selected sample. If a phenomenon had only been observed in one or two males, for example a particular buying behavior, it would not be particularly wise to infer the buying behavior of all males and base a market entry on that. The sample should therefore be enlarged.To be able to speak of a significant sample size in a scientific context, it is also important to distinguish causality from correlation. Causality implies an actual cause-effect relationship, while correlation is only a statistical relationship between variables. Thus, a significant sample size alone does not necessarily mean that one can prove causality. Especially in the changed purchasing behavior after an advertising campaign for a new vegan ice cream, one cannot conclude that the advertising campaign for the ice cream and for more animal welfare alone led to higher sales figures. Possibly it was also the warm weather, or an increase in the price of dairy products, which makes people try vegan ice cream for cost reasons.In practice, it is not possible in most cases to establish strictly causal relationships between marketing activities and results, because many factors are at work at the same time. Therefore, marketing professionals often focus on analyzing correlations. A sufficiently large sample is necessary to identify statistically significant correlations and to detect trends.In the following, qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis will be explained in more detail.Qualitative AnalysisQualitative analysis is an approach that focuses on exploring non-numerical data. It aims to gain insight into complex phenomena and develop deeper understanding. This approach is particularly common in the social sciences, humanities, and market research.Characteristics of Qualitative Analysis:Focused on subjective impressions, opinions, and experiences.Small sample size, but intensive data collection.Open research questions without predefined hypotheses.Empiricism based on texts, interviews, observations, and documents.Theory-building: new theories and hypotheses can emerge from findings.Emphasizes contextualization of data.Questions in Qualitative Analysis:"How do people experience a particular phenomenon?""What factors influence customers' decisions?""How do social norms develop in a community?"Typical data collection procedures:Interviews: Structured or semi-structured interviews.Focus groups: Group discussions on a particular topic.Observations: Direct observation of behavior in natural situations.Content analysis: Systematic evaluation of text or image material.Examples of Qualitative Analysis:Ethnographic studies: an anthropologist lives in a particular community to understand its culture and way of life. This involves participating in rituals, interviews, and collecting stories. The results are published in the form of detailed ethnographic reports.Content analysis of texts: a researcher analyzes interviews or text documents to identify recurring themes, patterns, and meanings. This can be used in the social sciences to detect trends in political speeches or media coverage.Case studies in psychology: a psychologist conducts a case study to examine an individual's behavior and experiences in more detail. This uses qualitative data from interviews, observations, and diary entries to gain deep insights into the person's behavior and psyche.Quantitative AnalysisQuantitative analysis deals with numerical data and aims to identify patterns and relationships between variables. This approach is widely used in natural sciences, economics and medicine.Characteristics of Quantitative Analysis:Large sample size for statistical generalizability.Clear hypotheses made before data collection.Empiricism based on numerical data such as numbers, measurements, and scales.Hypothesis testing: verification of prior hypotheses.Emphasizes objectivity and measurability of data.Questions in Quantitative Analysis:"Is there a significant relationship between income and education level?""What is the average price of a particular product in different regions?""What factors influence the share price of a company?"Examples of Quantitative Analysis:Customer satisfaction surveys: a company may conduct a quantitative survey in which customers rate how satisfied they are with a product or service on a scale of 1 to 10. By analyzing the average scores and standard deviations, the company can gain objective insights into customer satisfaction.Medical studies: In a clinical study, patient data (e.g. blood pressure, cholesterol levels) are collected before and after administration of a drug. Statistical analysis can show whether the drug has a significant effect by quantifying changes in the measured values.Financial analysis: an investor analyzes a company's financial data, including sales, profits, debt, and growth rate. Using ratios such as the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio and sales growth, the investor can make a quantitative assessment and make decisions.Typical methods of data collection:Surveys: structured questionnaires to a large number of participants.Experiments: controlled manipulation of independent variables to investigate cause-and-effect relationships.Observations: Systematic collection of numerical data in natural or controlled environments.Secondary data analysis: use of existing data, e.g., from public statistics.Relevance in Management ConsultingIn management consulting, it is important to know the difference between qualitative and quantitative analysis and to apply both approaches, depending on the needs of the project. At different points, the two analyses can be important:Understanding client needs: Qualitative analysis allows business consultants to better understand the needs and views of their clients. This is crucial in order to provide customized solutions.Holistic understanding: combining qualitative and quantitative insights enables a more comprehensive understanding of business situations and problems.Developing effective strategies: Quantitative analysis can be used to gather and analyze data on markets, competition, and financial performance. This helps in developing effective business strategies.Solving problems: Qualitative analysis can be used to identify specific problems in businesses and develop solutions. It allows for deeper insights into complex situations.Evidence-based decision-making: Both approaches provide evidence-based information that helps consultants make informed decisions and justify their recommendations.So in specific contexts, such as in SEA (Search Engine Advertising) and paid social media (Paid Social), the two methods can be particularly powerful:Search Engine Advertising:keyword effectiveness (quantitative): Quantitative analysis is critical to evaluate keyword performance in search engine advertising. One examines click-through rates, conversion rates, average cost per click (CPC) and return on investment (ROI) for each keyword.quality factor and ad relevance (qualitative): This is where qualitative analyses come into play. They help evaluate the quality of the ad itself, such as the text and landing page. This is crucial because search engines use the quality factor to determine ad rankings.A/B testing (quantitative): To compare different ad variations, A/B testing is performed using quantitative metrics such as click-through rates and conversion rates to determine which variation performs best.Paid Social:audience analysis (qualitative and quantitative): Here, qualitative analytics are used to better understand the target audience, determine their interests and needs. Quantitative analysis can then be used to estimate the size of the target audience.ad placement (quantitative): In social media, quantitative analytics can reveal which ad placements (e.g., newsfeed, stories, sidebar) are driving the best results, based on metrics such as clicks and conversions.Conclusion to Quantitative and Qualitative AnalysisOverall, it is crucial for management consultants to be able to master both qualitative and quantitative methods of analysis in order to respond flexibly to the needs of their clientele and make informed decisions in strategy adaptation.

Questions about market size are frequently asked in case interviews in consulting because they require a blend of logic, mathematics, and common sense. They can be asked as standalone questions or as part of a larger case. Applicants who are familiar with market sizing questions can really perform here. What Are Market Sizing Cases?If you're applying to top consulting firms like McKinsey, BCG, or Bain, you're unlikely to escape a market estimation case. Market sizing cases are considered "back-of-the-envelope" calculations because they can be done on the back of an envelope. Despite the name, it's not just about estimating market sizes; other estimations may also be asked for.For example, if you're discussing a British clothing retailer's growth strategy, you could calculate on an envelope how large the online clothing market is and what percentage of the market the retailer already penetrates. If you perform these calculations quickly, the conversation with the client stays fluid, leaving a good impression.You can receive the question about market size as a standalone case (although this is less common) or as part of a more comprehensive problem, such as market entry. The good news: There's no right or wrong answer when it comes to the question of market size 🙂 The interviewer is less concerned about the specific number you come up with for the market than the approach you took to arrive at that number. Why Are Market Sizing Cases Commonly Used in Consulting Interviews?Market Sizing Cases are used to test your quantitative and logical abilities. The interviewer wants to ascertain whether you work well with numbers and if you can make informed assumptions and deal with ambiguities. Questions about market size aren't just about the size of markets; they also involve other types of estimations, such as the number of golf balls in a jumbo jet. As you may have noticed, math is crucial in tackling these questions since you don't have a calculator to rely on. Most importantly, you need to be comfortable dealing with large numbers like millions and billions as well as percentages. More on that later. How Do You Best Approach Market Sizing Cases?Now that we understand the theory behind Market Sizing Cases and their relevance to your case interview, let's take a closer look at the process.Segmentation – The Key to Market Sizing CasesIf you've done some reading on case interviews before delving into market sizing questions, you might have come across areas where segmentation is necessary. Segmenting data is a crucial skill you must master as both a candidate in a case interview and in your later career as a consultant. Segmentation generally refers to dividing a larger whole into smaller parts or segments. The principle you need to understand to do this correctly is the MECE principle.MECE stands for "mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive." Simply put, segmenting a group of data according to the MECE principle means forming subgroups that do not overlap but collectively cover the entirety of the data, meaning no data is missing. An example useful for market sizing questions is dividing a country's population into age groups (as different age groups often behave differently).Below is a breakdown into Group 1 in the age range 0 to 14, Group 2 in the age range 15 to 64, and Group 3 for everyone over 65:Note that none of the groups overlap, so no age is counted twice, but also no age is overlooked. Now that the population is correctly segmented, we can treat each group differently. If we had divided the population of the United Kingdom into the aforementioned groups, we could estimate clothing expenditures per person in these groups in online retail. Common sense suggests that expenditures per person in the 0-14 age group are lower than in the 15-64 age group. We can justify this estimation by noting that the majority of 0-14-year-olds do not purchase their clothing online.